WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-7 Oct To 11 Oct 2014

Commodity Tips
Chana, or chickpea, futures ended steady as festive season demand and buying at lower levels offset ample supplies. Arrivals improved and capped upside. Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 29 September 2014 was 65,229 MT. According to IMD the overall monsoon deficit in the country is 12%. Sowing could be delayed due to late Kharif harvest. Chana delivered at NCDEX approved warehouses during September 2014 was 12,310 MT. As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is Forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.

Turmeric closed down on weak off takes due to poor quality arrivals in the ready market and on expectations of higher production. Weakness was seen in turmeric due to limited buying by traders in major producing states. However, the sowing of new crop is still a major concern in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu due to delayed monsoon rainfall and poor price realization by cultivators. As per market source, the demand for the yellow spice is still sluggish as traders have not received any fresh demand from north India. However, exports of turmeric during April-July 2014 have increased 5 percent to 27000 tonnes from 25758 tonnes a year ago, according to the data by the Spices Board of India.

Jeera futures slipped for second day on Wednesday after hit upper circuit earlier of this week on subdued demand amid adequate stocks, good crop prospects in Rabi season. As per market sources heavy stocks of around 61 lakh bags in local mandies will easily cater any domestic and international demand. The total stocks in local mandies were almost double of the previous year's level of 30 lakh bags due to record production in the last season. Good export demand due to lower global stocks had restricted the fall. Traders stated that not many arrivals have been reported in international market due to limited supplies from Syria and Turkey. Upcoming festive demand is likely to provide the underlying support to prices and attract the buyers at lower levels. Jeera futures November delivery failed to cross Rs 11 k level as short sellers active in the market triggered by subdued demand from retailers and stockiest amid adequate stocks. India’s jeera output was pegged at 456000 tonnes in 2013-14 (Oct-Sep)as against 394000 tonnes last year.

Indian soybean futures dropped on Wednesday, hitting their lowest level in more than 13 months, following a drop in overseas prices and on an expected rise in local production. Soy oil and rapeseed futures fell on a drop in global edible oil prices. Higher imports of edible oils too pressurized prices. India's overseas purchases of edible oil in the year starting November are set to surge to a record 13 million tonnes, as lower prices, rising population and higher incomes boost consumption. Chicago corn touched a five-year low on Wednesday and soybeans traded near the lowest since early 2010 as the prospect of record crops in the United States continued to put downward pressure on prices. According to the first Advance Estimates for 2014-15 released by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, soybean production may fall to 11.82 million tons marginally lower than the last year levels due to erratic rainfall over key producing regions.

Soybeans fell on renewed concern that supplies will overwhelm demand as farmers harvest the biggest crop ever in the U.S., the world’s largest grower. Domestic soybean output will rise 20 percent this year to 4.017 billion bushels, topping the 3.913 billion forecast last month by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA in September forecast U.S. farmers will produce a record 14.395 bushels, while Chicago-based researcher and broker Linn Group Inc. estimated the crop at 14.881 billion. The latest Crop progress report showed 10% of the overall soybean area is harvested in US; remain unchanged from the corresponding period previous year but 7 percentage points behind five years average. In the states of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi the progress of harvest is going on a good pace and it exceeded the five years average. According to Oil World estimates for 2014-15 seasons, global soybean processing might rise to 253.32 million MT, up 6.5% from previous year. The weekly export inspections for soybean overcome the expectations and stood at 687,191 tons. Moreover, Argentina may see favorable showers over the next week which is likely to boost the plantings.

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