MCX EVENING NEWS UPDATES @CapitalStars - 19 July 2018

Gold Prices Drop as Dollar Remains Near Three-Week High - Gold prices dropped on Thursday as the dollar remained near a three-week high. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments this week implied increasing interest rates and continued to put pressure on the precious metal prices. The fall in gold prices came as the dollar held firm against its peers following bullish comments from Powell. The U.S. Dollar Index remained unchanged at 94.84 on Thursday after hitting a three-week high of 95.407 the previous day. Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management LLC in Fredericksburg, Virginia, said “Strengthening economic growth and a confident Fed is helping to support the dollar. Higher short-term interest rates make the dollar more attractive relatively to other currencies.” Echoing the future increase in interest rates is the Bank of England in the UK. Its Monetary Policy Committee Michael Saunders said in early July that the bank might surprise markets with a swifter raise in interest rates than expected.

Big crude oil margins should boost U.S. refiner earnings - U.S. refiners ran full-tilt in the second quarter, fueled by cheap domestic crude and fat margins that should boost earnings, though their heavy activity could eventually saturate the market with gasoline, sapping profits down the road. U.S. independent refiners, including Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC), are expected to announce strong results due to the heavy discounts for U.S. and Canadian crude, along with strong fuel demand and lower costs to comply with the nation's biofuel laws, analysts said. Strong crack spreads - the margin on turning crude oil into diesel, gasoline and other products - have spurred refiners to keep production high. That margin averaged about $21.07 per barrel in the second quarter, its highest since 2015.

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MCX EVENING NEWS UPDATES @CapitalStars - 18 July 2018

Oil prices fall on U.S. stock rise, higher supply 

Oil benchmark Brent crude hit a three-month low on Wednesday after a rise in U.S. crude inventories highlighted increasing global supply and concerns over weak demand. Oil markets have fallen over the last week as Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia increased production and as some supply disruptions eased. "The correction in the oil price represents something of a convergence between fundamentals and physical realities," said David Reid, lead crude market analyst at consultancy JBC Energy. "We expect a fairly rapid lengthening in the (global oil supply) balance," Reid added. The U.S. oil market has been tight this year but data on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected rise of over 600,000 barrels in crude inventories. [API/S]

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Goldman Sachs expects volatile oil market, prices between $70 and $80 per barrel - 17 July 2018

Oil prices have declined sharply the past week as the Sino-US trade war intensifies and were hovering below $72 per barrel on Tuesday, not far from their lowest since mid-April.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects volatile oil prices in the short-term on the back of uncertainty over possible disruptions to supply, with benchmark Brent crude in a $70-80 per barrel range.

Oil prices have declined sharply the past week as the Sino-US trade war intensifies and were hovering below $72 per barrel on Tuesday, not far from their lowest since mid-April.

"Production disruptions and large supply shifts driven by US political decisions are the drivers of this new fundamental volatility, with demand remaining robust so far," the bank said in a note dated Monday.

The administration of US President Donald Trump is pushing countries to cut all imports of Iranian oil from November as it reimposes sanctions over Tehran's nuclear programme. But US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday that in certain cases, there could be waivers for countries that need more time to wind down imports of oil from Iran.

"The uncertainty on the magnitude and timing of the supply shifts has muddied the near-term outlook for oil fundamentals," Goldman said, adding that it continued to expect high supply volatility with potential for further disruptions.

"These supply shifts, alongside the ongoing surge in Saudi production, create the risk that the oil market moves into surplus in third-quarter 2018," the bank said.

However, prices are expected to get some support longer term as global oil inventories are weak, according to the bank.

"Ultimately, global inventories are low, oil demand remains robust and we still expect a deficit once U.S secondary sanctions are reintroduced."

Goldman said it still expects Brent to retest $80 per barrel, although this may occur only late this year depending on US oil policies, rather than this summer as it previously expected.

The bank added that the recent escalation in trade tensions was unlikely to have much impact on its 2018 oil demand growth view, but would likely create downside risks to its 2019 oil demand growth forecast of 1.6 million barrels per day.

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