CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY CRUDE OIL NEWS UPDATE : 17 October 2019

Energy Preview: Brent Crude Could Gradually Decline To $55 Per Barrel Over Coming Five Years Says IMF

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Crude Oil prices have been relatively stable, trading within a narrow range this year despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the IMF noted in its World Economic Outlook yesterday. In April, they surpassed $71, their highest for 2019, and hit their recent bottom of $55 in August before rebounding back above $60 in September. Initially, prices were pushed higher by the recovery of financial conditions as well as outages in Venezuela and US tensions with Iran. But in late spring a weaker global economy raised a concern about the strength of global oil demand, which was amplified by a buildup of US crude oil stockpiles.

Supply outages and geopolitical tensions, however, masked the oil demand weakness and, so, temporarily supported prices. Venezuela suffered production loss after a power outage in March and Russian oil exports were partially halted in May because of pipeline contamination. Although these outages were temporary, they helped balance the market, resulting in lower US inventories in early spring.

On the demand side, weaker global economic fundamentals have contributed to lower prices. The IMF's October a downward revision of the global growth forecast—by 0.3% to 3% and by 0.2% to 3.4% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from its April forecast—illustrates a slowdown in global activity, driven in particular by emerging markets and the euro area. In line with this slowdown, the International Energy Agency revised its oil demand growth forecast as of September for this year down to 1.1 mbd from 1.4 mbd in February.

As of late September 2019, oil futures contracts indicate that Brent prices will gradually decline to $55 over the next five years. Baseline assumptions, also based on futures prices, suggest average annual prices of $61.8 a barrel in 2019—a decrease of 9.6% from the 2018 average—and $57.9 a barrel in 2020 for the IMF's average petroleum spot prices. Despite the weaker demand outlook, risks are tilted to the upside in the near term but balanced in the medium term.


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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY COPPER NEWS UPDATE : :17 October 2019

Base Metals Preview: IMF Expects 6.2% Drop In Prices Next Year

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According to the latest update from IMF, global base metal prices declined slightly by 0.9% between February 2019 and August 2019 as continued trade policy uncertainty and fears of a global economic slowdown—especially in China—were only partially offset by supply-driven price increases in iron ore and nickel. Iron ore prices increased 6.7% between February 2019 and August 2019. Widespread disruptions—including the Vale dam collapse in Brazil and tropical cyclone Veronica in Australia— coupled with record-high steel output in China pushed iron ore prices to five-year highs during the first half of 2019.
Base metal prices suffered from a weaker global economy, however. Copper prices declined 9.4% on global trade uncertainty despite recent production cuts in the Republic of Congo, a labor dispute in Chuquicamata (Chile), and increasing extraction costs in Indonesia's Grasberg mine. The price of aluminum fell by 6.6% because of overcapacity in China and weakening demand from the vehicle market there. The price of zinc, which is used mainly to galvanize steel, decreased 16% from February to August 2019 as steel demand prospects deteriorated.


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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY GOLD NEWS UPDATE : :17 OCTOBER 2019

Precious Metals Preview: Gold Carves Out Modest Gains

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COMEX Gold stayed weak on worries over Indian demand despite a tentative recovery in US session on weak equities. COMEX Gold futures are currently trading flat at $1491 per ounce. India's Gold imports tanked 51.42% to Rs 9099 crore while Silver imports also fell 48% to Rs 1102 crore in September 2019. MCX Gold futures broke above Rs 38000 per 10 grams and closed at Rs 38219 per 10 grams, up 0.50% on the day. Traders are anxious about the retail demand ahead of Diwali. The US dollar index slipped sharply yesterday and currently lingers at its one month low around 98 level. This weakness in the dollar can support Gold though broad selling pressure in commodities can cap losses.

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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY CRUDE OIL NEWS UPDATE : 16 October 2019

Energy Preview: Oil Industry In A Much Stronger Position To Deliver Sustainable Energy Supply Says OPEC

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According to remarks delivered by Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General, at the 3rd India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, global primary energy demand will increase by 33%, or 91 Million Barrel of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), between 2015 and 2040. World oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 mb/d, increasing from 97.2 mb/d in 2017 to nearly 112 mb/d in 2040. He noted that energy security goes to the core of OPEC's being. The cartel has demonstrated a repeated commitment to sustainable stability, even during unprecedented events like the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities one month ago. In the immediate aftermath of these shocking attacks, Saudi Arabia moved swiftly to ensure a stable supply to the global market as it worked to restore its production capacity. The oil industry is in a much stronger position today to deliver a sustainable energy supply than it was just three years ago.


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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY COPPER NEWS UPDATE : :16 October 2019

Base Metals Preview: Copper Eases As Three Month Highs Fail To Sustain

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Copper slipped yet again as three-week highs failed to hold on amid tepid global economic outlook updates. International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the growth forecast for this year to 3% from 3.3% projected in April, in its latest World Economic Outlook yesterday. This will be the lowest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. COMEX Copper is currently down 0.27% at $2.60 per pound. Meanwhile, the US dollar edged up further as a recovery from three-week lows extended and is currently up 0.04% at 98.30. MCX Copper futures ended down 0.36% at Rs 442.80per kg as highs above Rs 444 per kg failed to sustain.

In other economic cues, the German investor confidence decreased slightly in October, survey data from the ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim showed on Tuesday. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped to -22.8 from -22.5 in September. The reading remains below its long-term average of 21.4. The current assessment indicator of the survey fell by 5.4 points to -25.3, which is the lowest since April 2010. Japan's industrial production declined in August as initially estimated, final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry showed on Tuesday. Industrial production dropped 1.2% month-on-month in August, reversing a 1.3% rise in July.

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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY GOLD NEWS UPDATE : :16 OCTOBER 2019

Precious Metals Preview: Gold Pulls Back, COMEX Futures Hover Just Under $1490 Mark

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COMEX Gold futures fell yesterday. The metal had seen some safe-haven buying on Turkey's incursion into Syria but supportive undertone in equities capped the up move for the metal. COMEX Gold futures are currently trading at $1487 per ounce, up 0.20% on the day. MCX Gold futures closed at Rs 38045 per 10 grams, down 0.47% on the day amid heavy losses in Indian Rupee. Indian Rupee extended a drop as a recent string of poor economic releases hurt the currency. INR closed at 71.54 per US dollar, down 31 paise on the day. INR has lost heavily in the last few days even as local equities witnessed steady buying. INR tested 71.57 per US dollar in intraday moves today- its lowest level in nearly the last month. The US stocks jumped with DOW soaring around 1% on the day on strong earnings. Gold is expected to see buying at a lower level on tepid global economic growth as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the growth forecast for this year to 3% from 3.3% projected in April, in its latest World Economic Outlook yesterday. This will be the lowest since the 2008-09 global financial crises.


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CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY CRUDE OIL NEWS UPDATE : 15 October 2019

Energy Preview: Supply Worries Push Up Crude Oil

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Crude fell by 2% in yesterday’s session as optimism of trade negotiation faded as China indicated further discussions were needed and the U.S. Treasury Secretary reported that next round of tariffs on Chinese imports are still set to take effect on Dec. 15 if deal has not been reached by then. Prices for further pressurized as weak Chinese economic data for Sep added to lingering concerns as China's exports and imports shrunk more than expected in Sep. Rumors in markets stated that China wishes Trump to scrap a planned tariff hike in Dec in addition to hike scheduled for this week, something administration hasn’t yet endorsed. Prices got some support from worries that further escalation along Syrian and Turkish border could affect output or exports from Iraq as Syrian troops entered Turkey. Reports suggested that compliance of OPEC was seen at above 200% in Sep which is supportive for prices. The focus of investors is currently focused on uncertainty around trade talks and weak global demand outlook. 


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