Crude Oil Up In Asia Ahead Of OPEC, Rig Count Data, NKorea Nuclear N - 22 Sep 2017


Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Gains In Asia On NKorea Remarks On Nuclear Testing.  
Gold prices rose in Asia on Friday as investors they digested an alarming report that North Korea could test a nuclear weapon over the Pacific Ocean with other attention on fixed on a policy speech on Brexit later in the day. North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said on Friday he believes the North could consider a hydrogen bomb test on the Pacific Ocean of an unprecedented scale, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported. Ri was speaking to reporters in New York when he was asked what North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had meant when he threatened in an earlier statement the "highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history" against the United States. Overnight, gold prices fell sharply on Thursday as traders continued to unwind their bullish bets on the precious metal in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement which sparked expectations of a year-end rate hike. Gold prices slid to a more than four-week low as a somewhat hawkish Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would start to unwind its massive portfolio of bonds in October and signaled that a year-end rate hike remained appropriate.  
  
SMM Nickel Weekly Average Price Tumbles 2,460 yuan This Week.   
The SMM nickel weekly average tumbled by 2,460 yuan per tonnes on a weekly basis, according to SMM data. The SMM nickel price averaged at 87,975 yuan per tonne this past week. China NPI Producers Hold Back Sales on Difficulties in Sourcing Supplementary Materials.  

LME Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs.  
LME aluminum will fluctuate at highs after base metals plunged yesterday, moving between USD 2,1402,175/mt. SHFE 3-month aluminum is expected to rally some and fluctuate between RMB 16,450-16,750/mt, with spot discounts between RMB 250-210/mt.      

Crude Oil Up In Asia Ahead Of OPEC, Rig Count Data, NKorea Nuclear N.    
Crude oil prices rose in Asia on Friday as investors looked ahead to a meeting of OPEC and allied nations to review efforts to curb output and U.S. rig count later in the day as they digested an alarming report that North Korea could test a nuclear weapon over the Pacific Ocean. North Korean Foreigh Minister Ri Yong Ho said on Friday he believes the North could consider a hydrogen bomb test on the Pacific Ocean of an unprecedented scale, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Thursday as investors continued to weigh data showing a sharp rise in U.S. crude production and stockpiles ahead of an Opec meeting slated for Friday. The rocky week for crude prices continued as concerns over an uptick weekly crude supplies and production weighed on sentiment amid growing investor optimism on a possible extension to the Opec-led agreement to cut oil output. 

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Gold Prices Edge Higher; Eyes on Fed Statement - 21 Sep 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Prices Edge Higher; Eyes on Fed Statement.
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday buoyed by a weaker dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve policy statement to gauge whether the central bank will stick to its plan to hike rates at least once more this year. The Fed’s outlook on future monetary policy tightening is less clear, however, amid growing expectations that the trend of slowing inflation could force the U.S. central bank to scale back its plan to hike rates at least once more this year. “The FOMC will announce its plans about trimming down the size of its mammoth balance sheet and the market has priced that in,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets. At the FOMC June meeting, the "dot plot," part of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections, indicated that the central bank saw rates rising to between 1.25% and 1.5% by the end of the 2017. The dot plot shows where each participant in the meeting thinks the Fed funds rate should be at the end of the year, for the next few years, and in the longer run.  

Three Producers Putting Aluminum Capacity Swap Quotas on Sale.  
Three aluminum smelters in Henan are putting aluminum capacity swap quotas on sale nationwide, according to Henan Commission of Industry and Information Technology. Global aluminum output fell sharply in August both on monthly and yearly basis, according to International Aluminium Institute (IAI). SHFE Aluminum Soars after Henan Implements Winter Cuts in AdvanceTwo Producers in Henan Begin Winter Alumina and Aluminum Cuts Ahead of Schedule.  

ICSG: Global Copper Deficit Expands in June.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its monthly report that global copper market deficit expanded in June, according to foreign media. Copper Consumption to Grow as New Energy Vehicle BoomsMorgan Stanley: Fundamentals Not Good Enough to Keep Copper Price above $6,600.  

Oil dips on rising U.S. crude inventories and production. Oil markets dipped on Thursday, weighed down by rising crude inventories and production in the United States as well as a stronger dollar, which potentially hampers fuel consumption in countries that use other currencies at home. Traders said that a strengthening dollar had weighed on Brent while rising crude stocks and production in the United States had weighed on WTI. Traders said that a strengthening dollar had weighed on Brent while rising crude stocks and production in the United States had weighed on WTI.Traders said that a strengthening dollar had weighed on Brent while rising crude stocks and production in the United States had weighed on WTI. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production has largely recovered from the shutdowns following Hurricane Harvey, currently standing at 9.51 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 8.78 million bpd directly after the storm hit the U.S. Gulf Coast.

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Gold prices gained in Asia on Wednesday with the Fed policy review - 20 Sep 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Gains In Asia Ahead Of Fed Policy Views - Gold prices gained in Asia on Wednesday with the Fed policy review expected to follow a well-telegraphed script on interest rates and reducing the balance sheet, though some investors are looking for language that suggests a shift to a more dovish outlook. Overnight, gold prices were flat on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s threat that America would “totally destroy” North Korea if forced to defend itself or its allies did little to raise safe-haven demand as investors focused on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee which concludes on Wednesday. President Trump’s latest threat to North Korea failed to garner much attention as investor focus remained on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that will conclude Wednesday with a statement on monetary policy.“The Fed is going to make sure that the process would stay as smooth as possible and this would likely push them to hold their gradual approach in hiking the interest rates,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst with Think Markets. “The odds of a December rate hike are standing at 40%, but a hawkish tone by the Fed could strengthen the dollar index,” he said.

Jinchuan Group Raises Nickel Price by 1,000 yuan - Jinchuan Group lifted nickel ex-works price by 1,000 yuan per tonne on Wednesday. Supply deficit in global nickel market widened in July, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Higher demand was due mainly to output increases at stainless steel mills in China.

LME Approves Listing of JNMCc Grade A Copper Brand - LME approved the listing of JNMCc Grade A copper brand, produced by Guangxi Jinchuan Non-Ferrous Metals on September 19. Southern Copper is considering bidding for mining rights of Michiquillay copper mine as it sees further rise in copper prices in 2019, said CEO Oscar Gonzalez.

Crude Oil Gains In Asia As API Estimates Support - Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Wednesday after industry estimates painted an upbeat picture on U.S. crude and refined product figures. On Wednesday, official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due. The API and EIA figures often diverge. Overnight, crude oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as data expected to show U.S. crude stockpiles rose for the third straight week offset earlier optimism which followed comments from Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi on a possible extension to the Opec-led agreement to cut oil output. Investor expectations that U.S. crude stockpiles are poised to rise for the third week in a row offset early gains which followed after Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi said that Iraq and other OPEC members are considering options to its production-cut agreement, including an extension beyond March and a deeper output cut.

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Gold prices dipped in Asia as markets grow cautious ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy statements - 19 Sep 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Dips In Asia As Investors Grow Cautious Ahead Of Fed Views.  
Gold prices dipped in Asia as markets grow cautious ahead of Wednesday's Fed policy statements with the details on the pace of unwinding its balance sheet awaited. Overnight, gold prices fell on Monday as fading tensions on the Korean Peninsula suppressed safe-haven demand while a sharp uptick in the dollar curbed sentiment on the precious metal ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting slated for Tuesday. Fresh on the heels of a two-week losing streak, gold prices started the week on the back foot as investors appeared to unwind some of their long positions in the precious metal following strong gains in both the greenback and treasury yields. Treasury yields rose sharply, pushing the dollar higher, amid expectations the Federal Reserve will announce that it will begin unwinding its $4.5tn bond portfolio and reaffirm its outlook that an additional rate hike remains appropriate this year, when it concludes its two-day meeting policy meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty eased, reducing demand for safe-haven gold as investors downplayed U.S-North Korea tensions and piled into riskier assets such as equities.  
  
Teck Resources Ups Zinc Output Target at Red Dog Mine.   
Foreign media reported Teck Resources Ltd. has raised its output target at the Red Dog mine. NBS: China Zinc Output Falls Noticeably in August. Zinc output is expected to be 525,000-550,000 tonnes this year, compared to previous 475,000-500,000 tonnes target.  

Spot Premiums to Narrow in Shanghai Copper Market.  
LME copper stocks returned to declines, easing declines in copper prices. Technically, LME copper has found strong support at USD 6,400-6,500/mt, but meets strong resistance at USD 6,600/mt.In domestic spot market, spot premiums will narrow to RMB 40-80/mt since opening of import window will attract inflows of imported copper.    Crude Drops In Asia As API Estimates Ahead.    Crude oil prices fell in Asia on Tuesday ahead of industry estimates by the American Petroleum Institute (API) of refined product and crude stocks in the U.S.Overnight, oil prices settled higher on Monday as investors shrugged off expectations that U.S. crude stockpiles are set to show a build for the third week in a row, following the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Despite U.S. refineries reporting a much better recovery from the recent hurricanes, investors braced for an uptick in crude supplies as the U.S. ramps up imports at reopened ports to make up for the shortfall in domestic production following the aftermath of storm Harvey.“It seems that at least part of the recent rally over the last few weeks has been due to stronger demand, all the major agencies revised up their forecasts for demand for this year,” said Tom Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics. 

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Gold Falls In Asia As NKorea Risk At Bay, Copper Jumps - 18 Sep 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Gold Falls In Asia As NKorea Risk At Bay, Copper Jumps - Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday as investors moved away from risk trades on North Korea tensions, but copper staged gains as housing data from China showed countinued gains for prices albeit at a slower pace that the previous month. Last week, gold prices fell as investors shrugged off a rise in geopolitical uncertainty that followed after North Korea launched a missile over Japan on Friday while growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates later this year kept the precious metal on track for a weekly loss. A day after data showing inflation rose to its highest in seven months fuelling expectations of a December rate hike, gold prices remained on track to snap three-week winning streak. Losses, however, were limited by weak U.S. economic data. According to investing.com’s fed rate monitor tool, more than 50% of traders expect the Fed to hike rates in December. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Strong Power Investment to Boost Copper Demand - Copper demand will benefit from China’s heavy investment in power sector, said Zhou Sheng, International Copper Association (ICA)’s President for China. ICA: China’s Share in Global Copper Demand Keeps Expanding. China’s power grid investment totaled 540 billion yuan in 2016, over 60% of total power investment. China will invest 1.7 trillion yuan in power distribution during 2016-2020, which will further lift copper demand. Besides, copper use in power source side will also grow along with development of new energy vehicle market.

LME Nickel Prices to Look for Support - China’s RMB loans and informal financing in August topped market expectations, with M2 supply hitting record low. Forex receipts fell for 22 months in a row. LME nickel is expected to look for support from the 40-day moving average today.

Oil markets firm on rising refinery demand, falling U.S. rig count - Oil markets were firm on Monday and remained near multi-month highs reached late last week as the number of U.S. rigs drilling for new production fell and refineries continued to start up after getting knocked out by Hurricane Harvey."Demand forecasts from OPEC and IEA... continued to improve sentiment in the market. Refineries are also reporting a much better recovery from the recent hurricanes," ANZ bank said on Monday. Oil refineries across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean were restarting after being shut due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which battered the region in the past three weeks.The refinery restarts are occurring "as signs emerge of stalling growth in the U.S. shale industry. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell sharply last week," ANZ said.

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Gold Gains In Asia After NKorea Missile Test Raises Risk - 15 Sep 2017

Commodity Intraday Tips
Funds Need to Buy to Stop the Price Slide (COPPER)- December Comex High Grade Copper futures are trading flat early Friday after another huge break on Thursday. Traders are saying that commodity funds are stepping in to stem the price slide. Earlier in the week, it was commodity fund liquidation driving prices sharply lower. On Thursday, copper fell to a four-week low after some weaker than expected data from China pointed to slowing demand from the metal’s top consumer. Chinese data showed slower than expected growth in investment, factory output and retail sales but a rebound in property sales and construction starts is likely to keep China’s overall growth relatively robust and on target. Hedge and commodity funds had basically saturated the market with long positions and the market ran out of buyers. They had expected the recent momentum to carry the Chinese economy for at least a month longer, given the recent strong PMIs and price action. However, speculator positions grew too large for the market to handle and something had to give.

Gold Gains In Asia After NKorea Missile Test Raises Risk  - Gold markets were choppy over the course of the session on Thursday, as we continue to see resistance just above. I think that the market breaking above the 1003 and $35 level will be very positive, and perhaps trying to send the market to fill the gap above that formed at the beginning of the week. Alternately, the market could go down to the $1300 level, and a move below the $1315 level should send the market looking for that. Ultimately, this is a very choppy market, but it looks like the sellers have taken control. Gold prices gained in Asia on Friday after North Korea fired a missile over the northern Japan island of Hokkaido and into the Pacific Ocean, drawing a new line in the sand for the U.S. and allies to respond. Overnight, gold prices rose for the first time in three days after the dollar came under pressure but gains were capped as data showed the pace of U.S. consumer prices hit a 7-month high in August raising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. Gold prices halted a three-day losing streak as the dollar eased despite inflation and jobs data topping expectations pointing to an improving U.S. economy which could influence the Federal Reserve to stick to its plan to hike rates at least once more this year. Some analysts believe, however, the Fed will taper its rate hike outlook as inflation will continue to undershoot the central bank’s expectations, boosting demand for gold. 

China Qualified Secondary Lead Plants to Expand Capacity, SMM Reports - Many large domestic secondary plants that have required licenses plan to expand their capacities, SMM analyst said at the 2017 SMM Secondary Lead-acid Battery Summit. Anhui Huaxin Lead Industry Group, Anhui Huabo Renewable Resources Technology and Taihe Dahua Energy Technology all plan to build second phase projects. LME Lead Canceled Warrants Fall to 8-Month Low. New Chunxing Resource Recycling also has capacity expansion plans in the second half of the year.

TALCO Eyeing Higher Aluminum Production - TALCO plans to expand aluminum production, said Igor Sattarov, spokesperson for the company. The company plans to increase its aluminum output to 300,000 tones by 2020. Possibility is high for the company to achieve the target, due to current positive market environment, positive market outlook and introduction of new aluminum processing technology, Igor Sattarov said.     

Crude Oil Down In Asia On NKorea Missile Test - Crude oil fell in Asia on Friday after North Korea tested an intermediate range ballistic missile over the Japanese island of Hokkaido and into the Pacific Ocean in the latest tit-for-tat with the U.S. and its allies for pushing UN economic sanctions, with investors looking ahead to the latest weekly U.S. rig count data. Overnight, crude oil prices settled at seven-week highs on Thursday buoyed by a pair of reports earlier in the week suggesting that rising global oil demand could stem the glut in crude supplies. The fall in Opec output came as a relief to investors, many of whom had questioned the oil-cartel’s commitment to tackle excess supplies following a drop in the group’s the rate of compliance with the global accord to curb production. "Stronger demand and supply restrictions from OPEC and Russia are the main reasons for the oil price upsurge," said Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada.

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Global Lead Supply Shortages Expand in July - 14 Sep 2017


Commodity Intraday Tips

Gold Drifts Lower In Asia With India Demand Cues Awaited - Gold prices dipped in Asia on Thursday with demand cues sought from the upcoming festival season in India with festivals such as Diwali often seeing a spurt in buying. Overnight, gold prices fell for a third day in a row, pressured by a sharp rise in the dollar as investors continued to flee safe-haven assets amid a decline in geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices remained on track to suffer their longest losing streak in more than month as appetite for safe-haven investments continued to fade, underpinning a move higher in both the dollar and treasury yields. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, reduces demand. Some analysts, however, viewed gold’s recent slump as transitory and highlighted that lower prices would attract buyers, supporting a recovery in the precious metal. Geopolitical trouble hasn't disappeared and the U.S. political landscape is still fraught with difficulties.

Global Lead Supply Shortages Expand in July - Global lead supply market reported bigger shortages in July, according to International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). In July, the shortages expanded to 36,000 tonnes, according to the data, up from 9,400 tonnes in June. The shortages reached 109,000 tonnes from January to July 2017, compared with a glut of 42,000 tonnes seen the same period of last year.

NBS: China August Aluminum Output Hits Lowest since April 2016 - China’s aluminum output fell for two consecutive months to the lowest level since April 2016 in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The country’s aluminum output was 2.64 million tonnes in August, down 3.7% year-on-year and below July’s 2.69 million tonnes. Aluminum Stocks in China Seven Major Markets Begin to Fall from Peak, SMM Says.

Crude Oil Down In Asia As EIA Data Drags On Sentiment - Crude oil fell in Asia on Thursday as data on U.S. inventories hit sentiment and investors shrugged off mildly positive figures from China on refinery runs. Overnight, oil prices settled higher on Wednesday, as bearish data showing U.S. supplies of crude oil rose more than expected was overshadowed by a report from the International Energy Agency estimating global oil demand this year will climb by the most since 2015. A report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week threatened to derail earlier gains, following a bullish report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil demand growth.The bigger-than-expected draw in gasoline stockpiles comes after heavy flooding due to storm Harvey knocked out nearly quarter of the U.S. refining capacity in August. Crude prices recorded their largest one-day gain of the week, following data from the Opec and IEA on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pointing to an uptick in global oil demand.

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