commodity expert

Iran, a major supplier within the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), signalled on Wednesday it could agree on a small increase in the group's output during a meeting at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna on June 22.

Oil prices dipped on Thursday as Iran signalled it could be won over to a small rise in OPEC crude output, likely paving the road for the producer cartel to agree a supply increase during a meeting on June 22.

However, prices were prevented from falling further by record refinery runs in the United States and a large decline in US crude inventories, a sign of strong fuel demand in the world's biggest economy.

Brent crude futures , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $74.55 per barrel at 0040 GMT, down 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $65.63 a barrel, down 8 cents.

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Iran, a major supplier within the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), signalled on Wednesday it could agree on a small increase in the group's output during a meeting at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna on June 22.

"There appears to be an air of confidence that this deal will move through," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

Tehran had previously resisted pressure by OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia to raise output.

OPEC, together with other key producers including Russia, started withholding output in 2017 to prop up prices, but a tightening market in 2018 led to calls by major consumers for more supplies.

In a sign of strong demand, US refineries processed a seasonal record of 17.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Amid strong consumption, commercial US crude inventories dropped by 5.9 million barrels in the week to June 15, to 426.53 million barrels , the EIA said.

US crude oil production was flat week-on-week, remaining at a record 10.9 million bpd.

Gold Prices Struggle to Find Footing as Dollar Rallies.

The growing threat of an all-out trade-war between the U.S. and China drew a muted reaction in gold prices as the dollar rally kept a lid on demand for the yellow metal. China vowed to retaliate to the latest trade salvo from the White House – after Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods – stoking fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Yet, gold prices struggled to capture the upside enjoyed by other traditional safe-heavens such as the USD/JPY, U.S. Treasuries and the USD/CHF as investors were wary of increasing their bets on gold amid a rally in the dollar to a nearly one-year high.

Four firms approved for copper scrap imports in 14th batch of approvals.

Some 2,935 mt of copper scrap imports received the green light in the 14th batch of approvals for restricted solid scrap imports, which was released on Tuesday June 19 by the solid waste management centre of China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Four companies involved in copper scrap imports made it to the approved list in this round. Two are located in Foshan, Guangdong province; one in Taizhou, Zhejiang province; and the last one is in Tianjin, SMM learned. This round's approved volume compared with 2,805 mt of copper scrap imports in the 13th batch of approvals.

Alumina prices dip for four straight weeks with continued pressure.

Declining prices of alumina across China continued to face pressure from higher operating capacity, a potential surge in domestic supply, and falling prices of primary aluminium, SMM learned. As of Friday June 15, the price of alumina averaged 2,812 yuan/mt, down 92 yuan/mt from a week ago, according to SMM assessment. This marked a fourth consecutive week of decline, following a drop of 94 yuan/mt in the previous week. The traded price in Shanxi and Henan province fell below 2,800 yuan/mt on June 15, SMM learned. Alumina operating capacity is expected to increase another 1 million mt per year from July, SMM learned. Some 100,000 mt of bagged alumina at Guangxi ports that were banned from conversion from bag to bulk grew the likelihood of their sale domestically. Declining prices of primary aluminium depressed alumina prices and hampered downstream demand for alumina as the commissioning of aluminium new capacity slowed.

Oil prices edge up on report of lower U.S. crude inventories.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Wednesday, supported by a drop in U.S. commercial crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the week to June 15 to 430.6 million barrels, according to the weekly API report published on Tuesday.Looming large over markets, however, was a June 22 meeting in Vienna of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with some other producers including Russia, to discuss forward supply policy. De-facto OPEC leader and top crude exporter Saudi Arabia as well as Russia, which is not a member of the cartel but the world's biggest oil producer, are pushing for looser supply controls, which were introduced in 2017 to prop up prices.

Precious Metals

CS GOLD (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 31100
RESIST 1: 31000
SUP 1: 30700
SUP 2: 30600

CS SILVER (JULY) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 40200
RESIST 1: 40000
SUP 1: 39300
SUP 2: 39100

Base Metals

CS COPPER (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 464.00
RESIST 1: 462.00
SUP 1: 454.00
SUP 2: 452.00

CS NICKEL (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 1020.00
RESIST 1: 1015.00
SUP 1: 985.00
SUP 2: 980.00

CS ZINC (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 211.00
RESIST 1: 209.00
SUP 1: 204.00
SUP 2: 202.00

CS LEAD (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 168.00
RESIST 1: 166.00
SUP 1: 162.00
SUP 2: 160.00

CS ALUMINIUM (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 153.00
RESIST 1: 151.00
SUP 1: 147.00
SUP 2: 145.00

Energies

CS CRUDE OIL (JULY) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 4560
RESIST 1: 4520
SUP 1: 4400
SUP 2: 4360

CS NATURAL GAS (JUNE) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 204.00
RESIST 1: 202.00
SUP 1: 197.00
SUP 2: 195.00

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Indian Indices:

Nifty may retest 10,700 support level

Global Market:

• Asian markets- Japanese shares are lower today as the Nikkei 225 falls 0.96%. The stock markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed at this time.

• US Markets: Dollar, yuan recoil as U.S.-China trade row heats up, yen gains

• European markets European markets finished broadly lower on Monday with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is down 1.36% while France's CAC 40 is off 0.93% and London's FTSE 100 is lower by 0.03%.

Major Headlines of the day:

• Chart pattern suggests that the benchmark index may continue to face resistance on a rise and may retest downside supports placed around 10,740 and 10,700 levels.

• Strides Shasun rises 3% on USFDA nod for tablets to treat fungal infections

• Borosil Glass Works locked at 20% upper circuit on bonus shares approval.

• Indian rupee opens flat at 67.98 per dollar

• RITES IPO to open on June 20

• Asian stocks extend slide, yen up as Sino-US trade dispute escalates

• BSE begins mock session for further funds offer of the Bharat-22 exchange traded fund

Trend in FII flows:-

The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -754.43 in the cash segment while the DIIs were Net Value of Rs 824.1 as per the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 19-JUNE-2018 :-

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2. Jet Airways
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Gold prices slumped to three-week lows as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China.

Gold on MCX settled down -1.17% at 31010 as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China. Gold deepened losses after President Donald Trump announced that the United States will implement a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods from China and Beijing quickly said it would hit back with its own tariffs. There was some support in gold prices after the European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement struck a decidedly dovish tone, as expected. The ECB also announced it would halt bond purchases and would phase out the economic stimulus by the end of the year. The central bank also said it would keep its interest rates unchanged at least through the summer of 2019. Gold discounts in India were at their widest in nine months this week as higher domestic prices tempered retail purchases, while buying in other Asian centers remained subdued amid a lack of significant momentum in global prices.

Copper prices slid on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil.

Copper on MCX settled down -1.59% at 473.9 on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil. China’s industrial output, investment and retail sales all grew less than expected, offsetting upbeat trade data and suggesting further weakness ahead if Beijing sustains its crackdown on factory pollution and local government spending. China’s economy is finally starting to cool under the weight of a multi-year crackdown on riskier lending that is pushing up borrowing costs for companies and consumers, with data pointing to a broad slowdown in activity in May. While slower Chinese growth suggested lower demand, China’s output of 10 non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel rose 4.3 percent in May from a year earlier to 4.55 million tonnes. Aluminium production was up 1.5 percent at 2.79 million tonnes.

U.S. oil slumps as China threatens duty on U.S. crude imports.

U.S. oil prices slumped on Monday after China threatened duties on American crude imports in an escalating trade dispute with Washington.In an escalating spat over the American trade deficit with most of its major trading partners, including China, U.S. President Donald Trump last week pushed ahead with hefty tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, starting on July 6. China on Friday said it would retaliate by slapping duties on American export products, including crude oil. This was in response to reports that top suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia would likely increase production. The producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, and some allies including Russia have been withholding output since the start of 2017. They will meet in Vienna on June 22 to decide forward production policy.