WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-22 Sep To 27 Sep 2014

Commodity Tips
Chana Oct futures traded on a mixed note with a positive bias. Prices gained on festive buying. However, reports of imports and comfortable supplies kept prices under check. Prices have declined over the last few months on sluggish demand in the physical markets coupled with record chana output in 2013-14. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 11th September stands 6.6% lower at 9.92 mn ha as against 10.62 mn ha last year. The 4th Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.27 mn tn, up from 18.34 mn tn earlier. There was a delay in the harvesting of the chana crop along with some crop damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Supplies of Chana since past one year has been ample as the country reaped bumper Chana output in 2012-13 season. For 2013-14 too, the government in their fourth advance estimates has projected record output of at 9.88 mn tonnes in the Rabi season. Chana October futures are expected to trade on a mixed note. Lower level demand as well as festive buying may support prices at lower levels However, good rains, comfortable stock positions and better kharif pulses sowing of may keep prices under check. Reports of fresh imports may also add to the downside pressure.

Turmeric futures tumbled sharply on long liquidation triggered by weak demand.Weakness was seen in turmeric due to limited buying by traders in major producing states.
However, the sowing of new crop is still a major concern in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu due to delayed monsoon rainfall and poor price realization by cultivators. Similar trend is also observing in Maharashtra as not much sowing has been reported in Sangli. On the other side, stocks have depleted in local mandies with strong pace due to steady export demand. Turmeric area in Telangana rose to 44632 hectares as of 10th Sep 2014 as against 43019 hectares a year ago, latest data from the state agriculture department showed. According to farm ministry’s third advance output estimate for horticulture crops in 2013-14;turmeric output is seen increasing to 1.23 mn tonnes from 1.03 mn tonnes.

Jeera futures traded lower because of sluggish domestic and overseas demand,Continuous rains in Gujarat and prospects of record output also weighed on the price trend. As per market source, the total stocks in local mandies were almost double of the previous year's level of 32 lakh bags. According to farm ministry’s third advance output estimate for horticulture crops in 2013-14, jeera output is seen increasing to 456000 tonnes from 445000 tonnes.

Soybean futures traded on a negative note on Thursday on better than expected sowing, good rains in the soybean belts, weak soy meal exports and weakness in the overseas markets. Prices had gained earlier of this last week on short coverings and tight supplies of the old crop. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 11th September is reported at 11.01 mn ha compared to 12.22 mn ha last year. The Ministry of Agriculture in its 4th Advance Estimates, projected 2013-14 soybean output at 11.99 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13. Soy meal exports in August ’14 have declined 98.49% to 2,778 tn from 183,555 tn in August ’13 on poor demand and lower availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotesfor foreign buyers. Mustard seed Oct futures traded on a positive note on Thursday. Meal export demand and declining arrival pressure supported prices while weak soybeans capped the upside. Mustard meal export increased 16.13% to 105,375 tn in Aug ’14 compared to 90,735 tn in Aug’13. Sowing of mustard seed in 2013-14 stood at 7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Agriculture ministry in its 4th advance estimates has pegged 2013-14 mustard output at 7.96 mn tn, down 0.85% compared to 8.03 mn tn in 2012-13.

CBOT Soybean futures traded on a negative note on Thursday on a pickup in the crushing activities. Prices have declined over the last few weeks on good crop conditions, expectations of higher yields and a bumper output. USDA forecast higher than expected output. The USDA monthly crop report in September forecast 2014-15 output 3.913 bn bsh against 3.289 bn bsh last year while end stocks are forecast at 475 mn bsh against 430 mn bsh forecast in July. 2013-14 end stocks are forecast at 140 mn bsh. The report forecast Brazil output at 94 mn tn against of 87.5 mn tn and Argentina output at 55 mn tn against 54 mn tn last year. Planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn acres. Good to excellent condition stood at 72% against 72% last week.

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