WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-4 Aug 2014 To 9 Aug 2014
CHANA
Chana, or chickpea, futures fell slightly as the monsoon improved in rain fed areas of western India where the crop is grown. Chana, or chickpea, futures ended weaker due to some improvement in the monsoon in the leading pulses-cultivating regions. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 24th July stand at 4.45 mn ha as against 7.33 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong stand at 1.63 mn ha, 0.95 mn ha and 1.03 mn ha respectively. An increase in the sowing of kharif pulses coupled with revival of monsoon may continue to keep prices under downside pressure. However, demand in the physical markets from the millers coupled with festive buying may be seen at lower prices.
TURMERIC
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note on weak demand in the physical markets on the back of poor quality crop arrivals and huge carryover stocks. However, lower acreage cushioned the downside. Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.04 lakh ha, as against 0.03 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.05 lakh ha. Production in 2013-14 is reported around 40 lakh bags, down by 10-15%. Exports between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 58,000 tn, higher than 49,526 tn in Apr-Dec 2012. Weak demand due to poor quality arrivals as well as huge carryover stocks may keep prices under check. However, weak monsoon in the turmeric growing regions coupled with decline in the acreage and falling arrivals may support prices at lower levels.
SOYBEAN & SOY COMPLEX
A pickup in the sowing of soybeans and revival of monsoon keep prices under downside pressure. The spot continued to remain weak and declined 2.46%. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 24th July is reported at 7.78 mn ha compared to 11.01 mn ha last year. There are concerns over below normal monsoon this season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. Revival of monsoon coupled with improvement in sowing and weak soy meal exports may continue to pressurize prices. However, tight supplies and lower availability of seeds may support prices at lower levels. As per the latest weekly release by USDA:
Soybean net sales for 2013-14 were reported at 1.87 Lakh MT, down 17% than 2.27 Lakh sold in previous week. Whereas, sales for 2014-15 were reported down by 50% at 12.68 Lakh MT. Exports during the week were at 1.05 Lakh MT, 35% lower than previous week and down 11% from prior 4-wek average. Taking cues from weak exports and sales during the week,CBOT Soybean futures continued to remain under pressure and dropped for the third straight month.
JEERA
Jeera August futures traded on a negative note on weak demand as buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks also added to the downside pressure. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Weak demand coupled with comfortable supplies may keep prices under downside pressure. However, a pickup in the overseas demand may be seen at lower levels.
CASTORSEED
Castor seed futures traded firm on lower arrivals at major spot markets. Positive crush margins have led to steady demand in the physical markets.* On 31st July, Gujarat, central Maharashtra and west Rajasthan region received around 150% excess rainfall. Heavy rainfall is forecasted over Gujarat, Saurashtra and parts of Maharashtra.
Chana, or chickpea, futures fell slightly as the monsoon improved in rain fed areas of western India where the crop is grown. Chana, or chickpea, futures ended weaker due to some improvement in the monsoon in the leading pulses-cultivating regions. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 24th July stand at 4.45 mn ha as against 7.33 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong stand at 1.63 mn ha, 0.95 mn ha and 1.03 mn ha respectively. An increase in the sowing of kharif pulses coupled with revival of monsoon may continue to keep prices under downside pressure. However, demand in the physical markets from the millers coupled with festive buying may be seen at lower prices.
TURMERIC
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note on weak demand in the physical markets on the back of poor quality crop arrivals and huge carryover stocks. However, lower acreage cushioned the downside. Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.04 lakh ha, as against 0.03 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.05 lakh ha. Production in 2013-14 is reported around 40 lakh bags, down by 10-15%. Exports between Apr-Dec 2013 stood at 58,000 tn, higher than 49,526 tn in Apr-Dec 2012. Weak demand due to poor quality arrivals as well as huge carryover stocks may keep prices under check. However, weak monsoon in the turmeric growing regions coupled with decline in the acreage and falling arrivals may support prices at lower levels.
SOYBEAN & SOY COMPLEX
A pickup in the sowing of soybeans and revival of monsoon keep prices under downside pressure. The spot continued to remain weak and declined 2.46%. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 24th July is reported at 7.78 mn ha compared to 11.01 mn ha last year. There are concerns over below normal monsoon this season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. Revival of monsoon coupled with improvement in sowing and weak soy meal exports may continue to pressurize prices. However, tight supplies and lower availability of seeds may support prices at lower levels. As per the latest weekly release by USDA:
Soybean net sales for 2013-14 were reported at 1.87 Lakh MT, down 17% than 2.27 Lakh sold in previous week. Whereas, sales for 2014-15 were reported down by 50% at 12.68 Lakh MT. Exports during the week were at 1.05 Lakh MT, 35% lower than previous week and down 11% from prior 4-wek average. Taking cues from weak exports and sales during the week,CBOT Soybean futures continued to remain under pressure and dropped for the third straight month.
JEERA
Jeera August futures traded on a negative note on weak demand as buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks also added to the downside pressure. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Weak demand coupled with comfortable supplies may keep prices under downside pressure. However, a pickup in the overseas demand may be seen at lower levels.
CASTORSEED
Castor seed futures traded firm on lower arrivals at major spot markets. Positive crush margins have led to steady demand in the physical markets.* On 31st July, Gujarat, central Maharashtra and west Rajasthan region received around 150% excess rainfall. Heavy rainfall is forecasted over Gujarat, Saurashtra and parts of Maharashtra.
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