WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-11 Aug To 16 Aug 2014

Chana futures bounced back sharply from lower levels on lower level demand coupled with festive demand and declining arrival pressure. Prices have declined over the last few days on an increase in the sowing of kharif pulses and a revival of monsoon. Prices declined over the last few months on sluggish demand in the physical markets coupled with record Chana output in 2013-14. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 31st July stands at 6.72 mn ha as against 8.3 mn ha last year. Sowing of Tur, Urad and Moong stands at 2.54 mn ha, 1.63 mn ha and 1.45 mn ha respectively. The 3rd Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.6 mn tn, marginally lower from 19.8 mn tn earlier. There was a delay in the harvesting of the Chana crop along with some crop damage in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Demand in the physical markets from millers as well as festive buying is likely to extend support to the prices. However, revival of monsoon along with an increase in the sowing activities of kharif pulses may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Turmeric futures traded on a positive note on reports of crop damage in Sangli due to heavy rains. However, weak demand in the physical markets on the back of poor quality crop arrivals and huge carryover stocks capped sharp gains. Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.061 lakh ha, as against 0.05 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of0.07 lakh ha. Crop damage in sangli and overall lower acreage may continue to lend support to the prices. However, sluggish demand due to poor quality arrivals as well as huge carryover stocks may cap the upside.

Indian soybean futures fell to their lowest level in nearly seven months on sluggish export demand for soymeal, and on good rainfall in soybean growing areas in the last few days. while rapeseed and soyoil dropped tracking losses in Malaysian palm oil prices. Malaysian palm oil futures fell in thin trade, tracking losses in overseas soyoil markets, with uncertainty about bigger global edible oil supplies keeping prices stuck in range bound trade. Indian oilseeds and soy oil futures supported by a strong rupee and on improved demand in the physical market due to upcoming festivals. A strong rupee makes edible oil imports cheaper and reduces margins of oilmeal exporters. Crude Soy oil imports in June ’14 declined 28.21% to 99,682 tn compared to 138,849 tn last year.Soy meal exports from India fell sharply to 2,637 MT in June from 8.226 MT in May vs.213,564 MT in June 2013. India's oil meal exports in June 2014 were 193K MT vs. 161K MT in previous month and 360K MT in June 2013.CBOT soybean fell owing to poor export sales data released. The latest weekly export sales data showed decline in net sales by 49 % to 94,900 MT and exports declined by 49 % to 53,900 MT from previous week. The ongoing bearishness in the US soybean market emerging from record crop outlook which might create abundant supplies in the market. Even the USDA weekly crop progress report showed the crop were in better shape with 71 % of the soybean crop is in good or excellent conditions. Soybeans blooming were reported at 85% this week, up 9% from last week, and 2% ahead of the five-year average.


Jeera August futures traded on a negative note on weak demand as buyers are waiting for lower levels to initiate fresh buying. Record output and huge carryover stocks also added to the downside pressure. Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. Weak demand coupled with comfortable supplies may keep prices under downside pressure. However, a pickup in the overseas demand may be seen at lower levels.

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