WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-7 July To 12 July 2014

India's chana, or chickpea, futures fell on Friday, as supplies picked up after government raids against hoarders to ease market concerns over possible supply shortages. Ample supplies, rising stocks on the exchange warehouse, expectations of improvement in sowing of kharif pulses and higher output in 2013-14 may also pressurize prices. However, lower pulses target for 2014-15 coupled with value buying may support prices at lower levels. CCEA increased the MSP of tur and urad by Rs.50 to Rs.4,350 each, while the MSP of moong was increased by Rs.100 to Rs.4,600/qtl. 

Soybean futures recovered towards the end of the week’s trading session on fresh buying. Planting delays in the central part of the country also supported prices. India's monsoon rainfall was 53 percent below average for the week ended July 2, the fourth straight week of  poor rains after a delayed onset. Weak soy meal exports and weak overseas markets pressurize prices. Prices gained over the last few sessions on forecast of below normal rains, lower sowing and tight supply of soybean seeds. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs.2500- 2560/qtl. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 26thJune is reported at 101,000 ha compared to 177,000 ha last year. There are concerns over below normal monsoon season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. According to NOPA, Soy oil stocks in April increased to 2.058 bn lbs from 2.023 bn in March and forecast of 1.990 bn lbs. Crude Soy oil imports in May ’14 rose 232% to 174,209 tn compared to 52,392 tn last year. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on June 1 stood at 610,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 465,000 tn on May 1.
CBOT Soybean November futures ended with a negative bias extending previous week’s losses as the stocks report showed higher stocks coupled with record high sowing this season. Soybean planting in the US is complete at 84.839 mn acres. The planting intention report forecast record high 81.493 mn acres to be covered under soy beans for 2014-15. The USDA monthly crop report forecast 2013-14 end stocks at 125 mn bsh against previous month’s forecast of 130 mn bsh. The report forecast Brazil output at 91 mn tn against of 87.5 mn tn and Argentina output unchanged at 54 mn tn. According to NOPA, soybean crushing in April was reported at 132.667 mn bsh, above expectations of 132.26 mn bsh.

As per latest weekly release by USDA 

Soybean sales were reported at 40,600 MT for 2013-14,down 87% from previous week and down 70% from the 4–week average. Whereas, exports during the latest week were around 1.26 Lakh MT, 29% up from the previous week but down 22% from the prior 4 - 
week average exports.

Soya oil exports were reported at 2,700 MT, down 83% from the previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average.

CBOT soybean futures edged lower and marked a fresh 4 month low on weak sales data and after the USDA forecasted bigger-than-expected soybean stocks and record production next season.  
Turmeric futures fell because of profit-taking although the downside was limited due to weak monsoon rains over the southern parts of India, mainly Andhra Pradesh. Turmeric futures corrected from higher levels on Tuesday on profit taking coupled with expectations of revival of  monsoon. Weak demand in the physical markets on the back of poor quality crop arrivals and huge carryover stocks added to the downside pressure and settled 0.82% lower. Prices gained over the last couple of days on below normal rains coupled with fears of lower acreage and 
declining arrivals.  

Mentha oil prices fall on higher supply with no fresh demand. Prices declining in the recent past are noticed due to heavy supply coming into the market. As we understand the harvesting is in the full swing and on an average the daily arrivals are around 160-200 drums. So, possibly prices are expected to remain lower in the near term. The Spot prices which was quoted around Rs. 780/Kg declined sharply to around Rs. 730 levels on higher supply with no fresh demand and on enough carryover stocks. As per physical traders’ remark the mentha production this year stands near 40,000 tons same as of last year while the carry forward stocks are in the range of 5000 to 6000 tons. Besides, the synthetic mentha production is said to be around 5000 to 6000 tons. so total mentha crop both natural and synthetic crop turns more than 50000+ tons which is marginally higher than the previous year. The commodity generally stays lower until July end and the same stance is likely in this year too.

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