WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-9 June 2014 To 14 June 2014
CHANA
India's chana, or chickpea, futures fell on Friday on profit-taking as prospects of summer sowing improved with the arrival of monsoon rains over the Kerala coast. Monsoon rains reached the southern coast a few days later than usual, offering relief to farmers eagerly waiting for the start of the wet season that is crucial for their summer crops. Market talks of higher production estimates, rising warehouse stocks is currently pulling the markets lower. As per the 3 rd Advance estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Gram (Chana) is
forecasted to be 9.93 million MT in 2013-14 compared to 9.79 million MT (2 nd Advance estimates) and 8.83 million MT in 2012-13. Talks of adequate supply and imports of Chickpea from Australian and Canada could also add pressure on prices.
SOYABEAN & SOY COMPLEX
Soyabean futures edged lower on NCDEX on the concerns that the government may takesome steps to curb inflation. Further, favorable monsoon conditions too added pressure on soyabean prices. According to the IMD, there is a 60% possibility of El Nino during monsoon.According to SEA, India exported 236K MT of oil meals in April vs. 397K MT in March and 197KMT in April 2013.Palm oil production in Malaysia rose 6.4% month-on-month to 1.66 million tons in May this year, the highest for the month since the 1.74 million tons produced in 2011. Exports rose 7.9% to 1.36 million tons in May, the biggest gain since March 2013. Soybean exports from Brazil totalled 7.61 million tons in May this year, rose 11.8% as compared to 6.81 million tons exported in May 2013 but declined 7.8% from 8.25 million tons a month earlier, the latest data from the country's Ministry of Industry Development and Trade showed. Brazil exported a total of 24.91 million tons of soybeans in the first five months of this year, up 35% compared to 18.46 million tons in the same time last year. China planned to buy 5 million MT of Rapeseed for state reserves this year to protect farmers interests and stabilize edible oil prices.
SUGAR
Sugar futures rose on fresh buying support amid expectations of a duty hike by the new government.
TURMERIC
Turmeric price seen under pressure and dropped by 4.51% on weekly basis tracking weakness in spot demand as weather conditions became favourable for the spread of monsoon to growing areas of South India after its onset over the Kerala coast. Spot turmeric price decreased due to poor quality of arrivals and slack upcountry demand. Only poor quality turmeric arrived for sale, so sales were low with only 45 per cent of the stocks being sold. The low sale was also due to poor upcountry demand. Arrivals remain steady in spot market in Nizamabad and supplies are expected to increase in coming days. However, the recent rainfall in Andhra Pradesh is likely to keep momentum supported for Turmeric in near term. The sources added that the total availability of turmeric have been reported at 50-55 lakh bags in major mandies, down almost 20-35 Lakh bags from the last year. A good monsoon is very crucial for sowing of the turmeric crop. According to the IMD, there is a 60% possibility of El Nino during monsoon.
JEERA
Jeera, or cumin seed, futures ended down as supplies improved in the spot markets of western India. As export and domestic demand dragged jeera futures, spot prices also slipped in tandem. Jeera supplier were higher in many centres putting further pressure on prices. Traders anticipate exports to pick up in the coming weeks.
MENTHA OIL
Mentha Oil futures traded up on MCX due to late sowing in local mandies along with some export demand inquiries. However, arrival for new crop slightly increased by 50 drums with total arrivals reaching to 280 drums. Higher supplies and weak domestic demand can pressurize mentha oil prices.
India's chana, or chickpea, futures fell on Friday on profit-taking as prospects of summer sowing improved with the arrival of monsoon rains over the Kerala coast. Monsoon rains reached the southern coast a few days later than usual, offering relief to farmers eagerly waiting for the start of the wet season that is crucial for their summer crops. Market talks of higher production estimates, rising warehouse stocks is currently pulling the markets lower. As per the 3 rd Advance estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Gram (Chana) is
forecasted to be 9.93 million MT in 2013-14 compared to 9.79 million MT (2 nd Advance estimates) and 8.83 million MT in 2012-13. Talks of adequate supply and imports of Chickpea from Australian and Canada could also add pressure on prices.
SOYABEAN & SOY COMPLEX
Soyabean futures edged lower on NCDEX on the concerns that the government may takesome steps to curb inflation. Further, favorable monsoon conditions too added pressure on soyabean prices. According to the IMD, there is a 60% possibility of El Nino during monsoon.According to SEA, India exported 236K MT of oil meals in April vs. 397K MT in March and 197KMT in April 2013.Palm oil production in Malaysia rose 6.4% month-on-month to 1.66 million tons in May this year, the highest for the month since the 1.74 million tons produced in 2011. Exports rose 7.9% to 1.36 million tons in May, the biggest gain since March 2013. Soybean exports from Brazil totalled 7.61 million tons in May this year, rose 11.8% as compared to 6.81 million tons exported in May 2013 but declined 7.8% from 8.25 million tons a month earlier, the latest data from the country's Ministry of Industry Development and Trade showed. Brazil exported a total of 24.91 million tons of soybeans in the first five months of this year, up 35% compared to 18.46 million tons in the same time last year. China planned to buy 5 million MT of Rapeseed for state reserves this year to protect farmers interests and stabilize edible oil prices.
SUGAR
Sugar futures rose on fresh buying support amid expectations of a duty hike by the new government.
TURMERIC
Turmeric price seen under pressure and dropped by 4.51% on weekly basis tracking weakness in spot demand as weather conditions became favourable for the spread of monsoon to growing areas of South India after its onset over the Kerala coast. Spot turmeric price decreased due to poor quality of arrivals and slack upcountry demand. Only poor quality turmeric arrived for sale, so sales were low with only 45 per cent of the stocks being sold. The low sale was also due to poor upcountry demand. Arrivals remain steady in spot market in Nizamabad and supplies are expected to increase in coming days. However, the recent rainfall in Andhra Pradesh is likely to keep momentum supported for Turmeric in near term. The sources added that the total availability of turmeric have been reported at 50-55 lakh bags in major mandies, down almost 20-35 Lakh bags from the last year. A good monsoon is very crucial for sowing of the turmeric crop. According to the IMD, there is a 60% possibility of El Nino during monsoon.
JEERA
Jeera, or cumin seed, futures ended down as supplies improved in the spot markets of western India. As export and domestic demand dragged jeera futures, spot prices also slipped in tandem. Jeera supplier were higher in many centres putting further pressure on prices. Traders anticipate exports to pick up in the coming weeks.
MENTHA OIL
Mentha Oil futures traded up on MCX due to late sowing in local mandies along with some export demand inquiries. However, arrival for new crop slightly increased by 50 drums with total arrivals reaching to 280 drums. Higher supplies and weak domestic demand can pressurize mentha oil prices.
Capitalstars Financial Research Private Limited is a research house and an investment advisory group.
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