WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-23 June 2014 To 28 June 2014
CHANA
Chana, or chickpea, futures ended weak, weighed by large stocks and subdued demand from local buyers. Chana prices dipped and could not sustain the highs as demand remained sluggish and monsoon sowing slow and steady progress for Kharif pulses. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 45 percent below normal till 18th June. Producers are worried if the slow monsoon does not recover on time and falls below 7% deficit, creating a 2009 like situation. El Nino likely in September. Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013-14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in Tur (3.38 MT), Chana (9.93 MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments.
SOYABEAN & SOY COMPLEX
Indian oilseeds and soyoil futures fell on Friday on the progress of monsoon in the country, while bearish cues from the global market and weak exports of soymeal added to the downside. The monsoon has covered half of India's landmass four days behind the usual schedule, however weather officials expect the monsoon to strengthen over the soybean growing areas of central India. Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, tracking weaker soyoil markets and as poor exports dragged, although the recent surge in crude prices due to tensions in Iraq lifted weekly prices to their biggest gain in eight. The short term trend in soybean and soyoil futures is expected to remain weak on subdued demand.
Soybean for November delivery at CBOT ended higher. The weekly USDA export sales data which is released last evening showed an increase in net sales by 13 % to 97,900 MT and exports by 31 % to 192,200 MT from previous week for 2013-14 crop. The net sales for 2014-15 crop is reported at 285,800 MT out of which 185,000 MT were sold to unknown destinations and 90,500 MT to China. As reported on 16 th June, US soybean planting is 92% completed which is 5 % above from previous week. Soybean emergence is reported at 83 % which is 12 % higher than last week and 6 points above previous five years average. The recent export sales data
released by USDA reported increase in soya oil exports by 57 % to 7,000 MT from previous week. The major destinations for exports were Dominican Republic, Mexico, Canada and Nicaragua. Higher Crude oil prices were seen supportive. Talk of poor Malaysian exports data for first 20 days in June were negative for prices. Exports of Malaysian Palm oil products for Jun. 1-15 fell 8.3% to 586,701 MT from 640,101 MT shipped during May. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
TURMERIC
Turmeric July futures corrected on profit taking. Weak demand in the physical markets on the back of arrivals of poor quality crop coupled with huge carryover stocks has pressurized prices over the last few weeks. However, forecast of below normal rains which may lead to lower acreage coupled with declining arrivals supported prices over the last few days.
JEERA
Jeera, or cumin seed, futures rose on some value buying, though lower-than-expected overseas demand capped the upside. Jeera futures traded on a mixed note on Thursday. Declining arrivals and expectations of a pickup in demand supported prices at lower levels. However,prices corrected from higher levels as comfortable supplies on the back of record output along with huge carryover stocks pressurized prices. Weak demand expecting a further fall in the prices added to the downside pressure.
MENTHA OIL
Mentha markets remained flat with a bearish tone due to supply pressure of the new crop in the local mandis. Domestic pharmaceutical Industries demand are likely to rise in coming weeks. Banning of Gutka in some states continues having negative impact on Mentha Oildemand. Latest reports from Spice Board indicate that for the period April-December last year,exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs 2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the previous year.
Chana, or chickpea, futures ended weak, weighed by large stocks and subdued demand from local buyers. Chana prices dipped and could not sustain the highs as demand remained sluggish and monsoon sowing slow and steady progress for Kharif pulses. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 45 percent below normal till 18th June. Producers are worried if the slow monsoon does not recover on time and falls below 7% deficit, creating a 2009 like situation. El Nino likely in September. Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013-14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in Tur (3.38 MT), Chana (9.93 MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT. On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments.
SOYABEAN & SOY COMPLEX
Indian oilseeds and soyoil futures fell on Friday on the progress of monsoon in the country, while bearish cues from the global market and weak exports of soymeal added to the downside. The monsoon has covered half of India's landmass four days behind the usual schedule, however weather officials expect the monsoon to strengthen over the soybean growing areas of central India. Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, tracking weaker soyoil markets and as poor exports dragged, although the recent surge in crude prices due to tensions in Iraq lifted weekly prices to their biggest gain in eight. The short term trend in soybean and soyoil futures is expected to remain weak on subdued demand.
Soybean for November delivery at CBOT ended higher. The weekly USDA export sales data which is released last evening showed an increase in net sales by 13 % to 97,900 MT and exports by 31 % to 192,200 MT from previous week for 2013-14 crop. The net sales for 2014-15 crop is reported at 285,800 MT out of which 185,000 MT were sold to unknown destinations and 90,500 MT to China. As reported on 16 th June, US soybean planting is 92% completed which is 5 % above from previous week. Soybean emergence is reported at 83 % which is 12 % higher than last week and 6 points above previous five years average. The recent export sales data
released by USDA reported increase in soya oil exports by 57 % to 7,000 MT from previous week. The major destinations for exports were Dominican Republic, Mexico, Canada and Nicaragua. Higher Crude oil prices were seen supportive. Talk of poor Malaysian exports data for first 20 days in June were negative for prices. Exports of Malaysian Palm oil products for Jun. 1-15 fell 8.3% to 586,701 MT from 640,101 MT shipped during May. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.
TURMERIC
Turmeric July futures corrected on profit taking. Weak demand in the physical markets on the back of arrivals of poor quality crop coupled with huge carryover stocks has pressurized prices over the last few weeks. However, forecast of below normal rains which may lead to lower acreage coupled with declining arrivals supported prices over the last few days.
JEERA
Jeera, or cumin seed, futures rose on some value buying, though lower-than-expected overseas demand capped the upside. Jeera futures traded on a mixed note on Thursday. Declining arrivals and expectations of a pickup in demand supported prices at lower levels. However,prices corrected from higher levels as comfortable supplies on the back of record output along with huge carryover stocks pressurized prices. Weak demand expecting a further fall in the prices added to the downside pressure.
MENTHA OIL
Mentha markets remained flat with a bearish tone due to supply pressure of the new crop in the local mandis. Domestic pharmaceutical Industries demand are likely to rise in coming weeks. Banning of Gutka in some states continues having negative impact on Mentha Oildemand. Latest reports from Spice Board indicate that for the period April-December last year,exports for Mint value-added products like Oil, Menthol and its crystals rose 94% in volumes at17,850 tonnes and 39% in value at Rs 2202 Cr w.r.t. same period the previous year.
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