WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-26 May To 31 may 2014

Chana future (June) may continue to trade lower. Higher Pulses production estimate and Poor quality arrivals amidst lack of strong demand from millers are likely to keep counter bearish. Chana down 0.51% on sluggish demand. Traders pare positions as higher arrivals from growing  belts fuel downtrend. Fall in chana prices to trimming of positions by speculators, triggered by subdued demand in the spot market against increased supplies from producing regions.

Indian soybean futures Prices bounces back as a firm trend in International market supported the Indian market. Traders expect the prices to rise further as demand too has started rising in mandies. However, reports of government initiating steps to control Price rise could keep  market sentiments very volatile. Improved progress of monsoon had created bearish sentiment for oil complex sector as a whole. As per analysts, planted & harvested soyabean acres are expected to increase from 2013-2014 crop. The U.S., the Brazilian, the Argentina soyabean  crops are projected for higher yields. 
CBOT Soybean complex prices moved higher with near month contracts outperforming far month contracts in Soybean and meal. Soybean complex prices shot up yesterday on signs of renewed strong demand from China amid higher egg and pork prices in China. China imported 6.5 million MT of Soybeans in April, up 63% from a year earlier and the most ever for the month. Talk of better crushing margins in China was also seen supportive for Soybean and meal prices. US Soybeans planting was 33% completed as of 18 May vs. 20% previous week vs. 5 year  average of 38%. According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 13 May, non commercial traders decreased their net long positions in CBOT Soybeans. ICE Canola prices closed higher.  

Turmeric futures are seen down due to lack of strong demand for poor quality arrivals, coupled with huge carryover stocks. However, the downside in the yellow spice is likely to be limited on hopes of a rise in export enquiries. Meanwhile, during 2013-14 turmeric export performance have seen decline compared to previous year in terms of volume but higher earnings, as per reports from Spices Board of India. As per the latest report from Andhra Pradesh Horticulture Department, production of turmeric in the state for this year is seen declining by 11 percent to 1.02 million tonnes, as against last year.

Jeera futures are seen trading higher as easing arrivals in the physical market could push up jeera in coming days. Strong demand for Indian jeera from international markets due to lower prices compared to other origin and lower production in Turkey and Syria may further support futures. Meanwhile, fundamentals such as record high output amid huge carryover stocks may further weigh on prices. India's total jeera production is estimated at 5.5-6.0 million bags in the current year against 4.5-4.8 million bags in the previous year. 

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