BULLIONS WEEKLY REPORT 17–22 FEBRUARY 2014

GOLD

Gold ended the week at a recent record high of 1319.00 after touching 1321.30

climbing steadily after Janet Yellen’s testimony before US lawmakers and a slew

of lackluster economics data in the US. Bullion saw its biggest weekly gain in 6

months as weak manufacturing output pressured the greenback and boosted

gold’s appeal as a currency hedge. Gold futures rose on Friday for an eighth

session in a row and scored a roughly 4.4% gain for the week, fueled by a

combination of increased physical demand and economic jitters. April gold

futures rose 1.4% to finish at $1,318.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the

New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. factory production unexpectedly declined in

January by the most since May 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed.

US retail sales fell unexpectedly in January and more Americans filed for jobless

benefits last week, the latest signs the economy started the year on a softer

footing as unseasonably cold weather took its toll.Gold futures rose on Friday for an eighth

session in a row and scored a roughly 4.4% gain for the week, fueled by a

combination of increased physical demand and economic jitters. April gold

futures rose 1.4% to finish at $1,318.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the

New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. factory production unexpectedly declined in

January by the most since May 2009, figures from the Federal Reserve showed.

US retail sales fell unexpectedly in January and more Americans filed for jobless

benefits last week, the latest signs the economy started the year on a softer

footing as unseasonably cold weather took its toll.

SILVER

Silver soared on Friday to trade above the $21 level as the weak US dollar and a

surge in precious metals pushed the pair up over 4% on Friday. An analyst noted

that people were still looking for safe-haven assets with traders starting to

reposition based on concerns over emerging-market growth. Silver hit its highest

since November and ended the day up 4.3 percent at $21.32 an ounce. The

outlook for this precious metal is bullish next week and volume will increase on

persistent demand,” a dealer said.

CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil climbed this week to close at the top of its recent range and near the

2014 high, at 100.33. Brent Oil is steady 108.72 with the gap narrowing at $8.50.

Cold winter weather in the U.S. Northeast and supply disruptions in producers

Libya and Angola lifted Brent crude, but Friday’s weak manufacturing data

weighed on U.S. crude. Global oil prices fell on Friday as traders took profits at the

end of a week in which crude futures reached multi-month high points on

improving US demand prospects. Crude futures had reached multi-months peaks

on Wednesday, while support ahead was set to come from firm demand in the

United States. Severe winter weather in North America has raised the demand

outlook for heating fuel. World oil markets are unexpectedly tight as growth in

advanced economies picks up, the IEA warned on Thursday, urging the OPEC to

skip a seasonal output drop as stocks touch six-year lows. IEA said a pickup in

demand in advanced countries, led by the United States, has more than

compensated for a slowing of emerging market consumption.  

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas closed the week marching back its high just a week ago as freezing

weather continued to blanket the US. Natural gas climbed to trade at 5.233 after

hitting a high of 5.386. Natural gas prices zigzagged throughout the session, but

jumped nine percent this week as cold weather plagued regions of the United

States and stored gas supplies rapidly dwindled. Then again, so are U.S. storage

levels, which look poised to hit a decade low by the end of the winter-heating

season. A report from the U.S. EIA showed that supplies of natural-gas in

underground storage dropped to 1.686 trillion cubic feet for the week ended Feb.

7. That’s the lowest total storage level since the first week of April 2013, and it’s

also the lowest storage figure for the second week of February since 2004. The

winter-heating season doesn’t officially come to a close until the end of March

and by then, overall supplies could sink to just 1 trillion cubic feet. Natural-gas

futures saw their first weekly advance in three weeks, but prices fell Friday as traders reconsidered the hefty 8% advance of a day earlier and digested U.S. data

showing a drop in monthly industrial production. Oil futures stuck to a tight

trading range of roughly $1 a barrel, though managed to score a fifth weekly gain

in a row. March natural gas lost about a penny, or 0.2%, to settle at $5.214 per

million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching

a low of $5.141  

COPPER

Copper concluded the week at a near time high of 3.264 as Chinese trade data

showed a large climb in the demand for metals along with the weak US dollar and

a drop in warehouse inventory. Copper rose to a two-week high in New York

after European economic growth topped analysts’ estimates, bolstering optimism

that demand may rise. Tin headed for the biggest gain in almost four months.

Gross domestic product in the euro zone expanded 0.3% last quarter, European

Union data showed today, more than the 0.2% median forecast of analysts

surveyed by Bloomberg. The dollar fell to the lowest this year against a 10-

currency basket that includes the euro, boosting the appeal of copper as an

alternative investment. Market analysts said besides increased demand from

consuming industries, a firming overseas trend as London Metal Exchange

stockpiles fell for the 20th straight day to the lowest level since December 2012,

ahead of the return of more Chinese traders next week, influenced copper prices

at futures trade here. Meanwhile, copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell to

300,675 tonnes yesterday, according to data released by the bourse.  

COMMODITY PICK OF THE WEEK: SILVER

MCX SILVER MARCH as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 44544

levels initially moved higher and made a high of 46717 & finally closed at 46613, much

higher from the previous weeks closing level of 44369.

For the next week we expect Silver prices to find support in the range of 45700-45235

levels. Trading consistently below 45200 levels would lead towards the major support at

44500-44350 levels. Resistance is now observed in the range of 47500 levels. Trading

consistently above 47500 level would lead towards the strong resistance at 48250-

48350 levels, and then finally towards the Major resistance at 49500 level.

WEEKLY RECOMMENDATION: BUY SILVER MARCH MCX BETWEEN 46650 TO 46750

FOR TARGET OF 48500 & THEN 49450 WITH SL OF 45600.  

COMMODITY PICK OF THE WEEK: COPPER

MCX COPPER FEB as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 445.95

levels initially moved higher and made a high of 447.85 & finally closed at 445.80, up

from the previous weeks closing level of 444.70.

For the next week we expect Copper prices to find support in the range of 440-437

levels. Trading consistently below 435 levels would lead towards the major support at

430-425 levels. Resistance is now observed in the range of 450-453 levels. Trading

consistently above 454 levels would lead towards the strong resistance at 459.25 levels,

and then finally towards the Major resistance at 462 level.

WEEKLY RECOMMENDATION: SELL COPPER FEBRUARY MCX NEAR 445 TO 447 FOR

TARGET OF 435 WITH SL OF 454.