WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-30 June 2014 To 5 July 2014

Chana futures traded higher on NCDEX on delay in monsoon rains. Further,expectations of higher demand due to upcoming festivities too supported the prices uptrend.However, traders’ fear over the government’s move to ban futures trading, capped the gains in chana prices to some extent. Forecast of below normal and lower pulses target for 2014-15 coupled with value buying may extend support to the prices. However, ample supplies, rising stocks on the exchange warehouses, expectations of improvement in sowing of kharif pulses and higher output in 2013-14 may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Soybean futures recovered from lower levels on short coverings coupled with forecast of below normal rains and positive overseas markets and settled 0.31% higher. Prices declined over the last few weeks on weak soy meal exports demand. The CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 19 th June is reported at 15,000 ha compared to 28,000 ha last year. There are concerns over below normal monsoon season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. Soy meal exports in May ’14 have declined to 8,226 tn, down 91.47% y-o-y from 96,492 tn on poor demand and lower availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for foreign buyers.

Indian soyoil futures rose, shrugging of losses in the global market where benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures fell. Rapeseed futures also rose due to concerns over forecasts of below-average monsoon rains this year. India's rain shortfall shrank in the third week since the
onset of its monsoon, recovering a little after a poor start, but farmers remain concerned as rains are a third below normal due to sluggish progress toward grain belts in the northwest.Subdued export demand for soy meal may weigh on sentiment, though concerns over the delayed monsoon could aid prices at lower levels.Chinese soybean imports may increase in June to as much as 7.5 million tons, “a near
record” and up from 6.9 million tons at the same time last year as per Oil World. That compares with combined purchases of 14.04 million tons in April and May, down from 14.75 million tons last year.

CBOT Soybean futures fell the most this month as warm, wet weather improved growing conditions amid the outlook for a record crop in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower. Corn and wheat rose. Domestic farmers will harvest 3.635 billion bushels of soybeans this year, the most
ever, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts. As of June 22, 72 percent of crops were in good or excellent condition, the most for the date in records going back to 1986, USDA data show.


Turmeric future gained earlier this week on forecast of below normal rains coupled with fears of lower acreage and declining arrivals. . Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2013-14 season is reported at 0.53 lakh ha, as against 0.68 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.68 lakh ha. Weak demand due to poor quality arrivals as well as huge carryover stocks keep prices under check.

Jeera futures corrected on a negative note on Thursday on improving arrivals at higher levels coupled with comfortable supplies. However, Jeera future closed on a positive note this week traded on pickup in demand from the domestic as well as overseas buyers. Geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey have led to a supply crunch in the global markets raising supply concerns from the two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India.Production is also expected to fall in Syria and Turkey due to crop failure. According to IBIS India’s Jeera exports have crossed 1,00,000 tonnes till Feb’14. Production of Jeera in 2013-14 is expected around 45-50 lakh bags (55 kgs each), higher than 40-45 lakh bags last year.

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