Oil Prices Stable On Healthy Demand But Oversupply Looms - 15 Mar 2018

Gold settle flat on an expectation of higher interest rates, but downside seen limited by safe-haven buying after the sudden dismissal of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson -  Gold on MCX settled up 0.09% at 30405 held steady in the range while sentiments improved after the release of mixed U.S. economic reports and as investors remained cautious after the sudden firing of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. From the data point the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.1% in February, compared to expectations for a 0.3% rise Rising inflation could add pressure on the Fed to speed up its rate rises, which could lift the dollar, though strangle the stock market. Gold, in turn, although negatively affected by higher interest rates, could attract hedging demand against too-hot inflation. The impact of trade policy has also served as a backdrop to recent trading. Tillerson will be replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo. Investors also remained cautious after Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports, specifically targeting the technology and telecommunications sectors.

Copper prices gained as support seen from expectations of stronger demand in top consumer China - Copper on MCX settled up 0.73% at 454.25 as support seen from expectations of stronger demand in top consumer China. Prices were supported by news of industrial action at First Quantum’s Cobre Panama project, “which has reduced the level of work being performed on the project”. The workers in the largest union at Antofagasta Plc’s Los Pelambres copper mine rejected an offer for a new labour contract, paving the way for striking action. Workers and the company would still have to go through a meditation process with the government to reach a second deal. Strong demand from the growing electric economy could be undermined by supply disruptions if wage contracts can’t be negotiated across the major producer. Also China’s lower copper imports in February weakened the sentiment on copper.

Oil Prices Stable On Healthy Demand But Oversupply Looms - Oil prices were mostly flat on Thursday morning in Asia, held steady by healthy global demand but capped by the ongoing surge in U.S. production.Prices were supported by healthy demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday that oil consumption was expected to grow by 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018. But overshadowing this market optimism is the relentless increase in U.S. crude output, which hit another record last week by climbing to 10.38 million bpd, up by more than 23% since mid-2016. Commercial crude rose by 5 million barrels, at 430.93 million barrels. U.S. crude production has already topped that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, and by late 2018 is expected to surpass 11 million bpd, overtaking top producer Russia.

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Oil prices were flat on Wednesday morning in Asia, having edged up slightly after two days of decline - 14 Mar 2018

Gold prices turned positive as the U.S. dollar lost ground after news that U.S. President Donald Trump replaced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson -  Gold on MCX settled up 0.15% at 30377 as prices saw some safe-haven demand due to increasing concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired by President Trump prompted some fresh safe-haven in gold and silver markets. The firing of a Trump cabinet official comes on the heels of Trump’s chief economic advisor quitting last week. Trump is seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports and will target the technology and telecommunications sectors, two people who had discussed the issue with the Trump administration said. Gold was sold at a discount in India as demand remained subdued for a fourth straight week while buying in the rest of Asia picked up as prices fell for a third consecutive week. 

Copper prices gained tracking firmness in LME prices finished 0.5 percent higher at amid weakness in dollar - Copper on MCX settled up 0.16% at 450.95 recovered from the day's low as support seen after the update that reliable supply of copper from the world’s largest producer, Chile, is under threat as unions face broad wage renegotiations across top global miners. Strong demand from the growing electric economy could be undermined by supply disruptions if wage contracts can’t be negotiated across the major producer. Also China’s lower copper imports in February weakened the sentiment on copper. While New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Congress testimony that hiking interest rates four times this year would be considered a "gradual pace", bolstering expectations of a March rate hike.

Oil Prices Stable With Strong China Data - Oil prices were flat on Wednesday morning in Asia, having edged up slightly after two days of decline.China’s industrial output rose 7.2% in the first two months of the year compared with the same period last year, surpassing expectations of a 6.1% growth. At the same time, during the spring season now starting, U.S. crude inventories are not rising as much as expected, implying healthy demand. However, oil markets remain relatively weak. Prices have strayed far from their January highs of almost $67 for WTI and over $70 per barrel for Brent. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been propping up prices by cutting output, the U.S. has been capping prices by ramping up production.

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Gold prices fell as the dollar held steady after data showed the U.S. economy added a larger-than-expected number of jobs in February - 13 Mar 2018

Gold prices fell as the dollar held steady after data showed the U.S. economy added a larger-than-expected number of jobs in February -  Gold on MCX settled down -0.23% at 30332 tracking weakness from Comex Gold prices which turned lower as market sentiment remained supported by expectations for a less aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. The dollar initially strengthened after the Labor Department reported on Friday that the U.S. economy added 313,000 jobs last month, beating economists’ forecasts of 200,000. It was the largest monthly increase in one-and-a-half years. However the report also showed that average hourly earnings rose by just 0.1% in February for an annual rate of 2.6%, down from 2.8% in January. The slowdown in wage growth dampened expectations for four rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar index was steady at 90.13, not far from Friday's one-week highs of 90.36. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency, while a rise in U.S. rates lifts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data to gauge how it will affect the outlook for monetary tightening in the coming months. 

China’s aluminium oxide imports fall to new low in Jan - China's imports of aluminium oxide in January fell for three consecutive months and touched a new low of 74,000 mt since August 2017. This is down 48.6% month on month and 72.3% year on year, according to China Customs. Higher prices of imports, over prices of domestic supplies, accounted for the decline. Imports are likely to remain weak in February given the impact of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday and as profit margins between domestic supplies and imports widen. SMM expects imports to remain low in March in view of the 50% production cut at Hydro’s Alunorte aluminium oxide plant in Brazil. The cur will lower supplies of foreign aluminium oxide.

Oil prices fall on relentless rise in U.S. crude output - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as the inexorable rise in U.S. crude output weighed on markets.Both crude benchmarks dropped by around 1 percent in their Monday sessions. "Oil prices fell on the back of concerns that surging U.S. production ... could push inventories in the U.S. higher," ANZ bank said on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil production soared past 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2017, overtaking output by top exporter Saudi Arabia. U.S. production is expected to rise above 11 million bpd by late 2018, taking the top spot from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The rising U.S. output comes largely on the back of onshore shale oil production. U.S. crude production from major shale formations is expected to rise by 131,000 bpd in April from the previous month to a record 6.95 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report on Monday.

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Gold settled flat recovering from lows as disappointing growth in U.S. wages tempered pressure from a jump in domestic jobs-12 Mar 2018

Gold settled flat recovering from lows as disappointing growth in U.S. wages tempered pressure from a jump in domestic jobs - Gold on MCX settled flat by -0.09% at 30401 recovering from lows as disappointing growth in U.S. wages tempered pressure from a jump in domestic jobs. The latest snapshot of the U.S. labor market showed strong job growth and a higher participation rate, with the nation adding 313,000 new jobs in February. But the 12-month increase in pay slipped to 2.6% from a revised 2.8% in January. Gold was sold at a discount in India as demand remained subdued for a fourth straight week while buying in the rest of Asia picked up as prices fell for a third consecutive week. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, compared with a premium of $2 last week. India’s gold imports in February dropped a quarter from a year ago to 63 tonnes as higher prices curtailed demand in the world’s second-biggest consumer of bullion. Meanwhile in China, there was some good buying through the mid-week, with gold selling at a premium of $6-$8 over benchmark rates this week, down slightly from $8-10 last week.

Short supplies of nickel concentrate in China to end by 2021 - Supply shortages of nickel concentrate in China are likely to end by 2021, showed SMM data. Global supplies fell in recent years as prices of nickel weakened. The decline in imports of nickel concentrate  led to the subsequent decrease in supplies in 2015-2017. In addition, a major producer of nickel pig ingot (NPI) in south China raised its use of nickel concentrate after Indonesia imposed an export ban on nickel ore in 2014. SMM expects China’s nickel concentrate supplies to grow as new mines in Qinghai province and Russia are set to open in 2020. Imports of nickel ore will also rise in 2018 after Indonesia's export ban eased in 2017. Demand for nickel concentrate will rebound when Indonesia reinstates the ban on nickel ore exports in 2022.

Oil edges up on reduced U.S. drilling activity, booming job market - Oil markets edged up on Monday on the back of a drop in the number of U.S. rigs drilling for more production and as the U.S. economy continued to create jobs, which industry hopes will drive higher fuel demand."A falling rig count and the strong employment data may have helped support prices," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities.In oil markets, U.S. energy companies last week cut oil rigs for the first time in almost two months , with drillers cutting back four rigs, to 796, Baker Hughes (N:GE) energy services firm said on Friday.

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Oil Prices Rise as Trump Prepares to Meet North Korea’s Kim -9 Mar 2018

Gold dropped as a leading dollar index strengthened and investors awaited the latest monthly data on U.S. employment - Gold on MCX settled down -0.15% at 30429 slipped lower on Thursday, as the dollar showed little reaction to downbeat U.S. data amid sustained uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Sentiments remained lower for Gold after the European Central Bank on Thursday, as expected, left interest rates unchanged Thursday, saying it would continue its program of asset purchases through September, “or beyond, if necessary.” The bank did drop language saying it was ready to expand quantitative easing if conditions worsened. Also Monetary policy differentiation continues to influence trading. Prices for the metal had declined after the release of the Fed Beige Book, which offered a snapshot of domestic economic activity. Among the findings of the report, which came out after gold futures settled, growth remained at a modest to moderate pace in January and February. While overall, it has certainly been a “roller coaster week for the yellow metal, as the combination of political uncertainty and U.S. rate hike expectations attracted both buyers and sellers, much attention will be directed towards Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could play a role in how gold concludes this week.

Strong opposition to US tariffs on steel, aluminium: China Ministry of Commerce - China warned that it will take a strong stance to protect its interests against US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. China's commerce ministry spoke against the tariffs on Friday March 9. Director of the commerce ministry's trade remedy and investigation bureau, Wang Hejun, said that the tariffs will jeopardise multilateral trade in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and that they will "bring a serious impact on normal international order". “If the US measures impair the interests, China will join efforts with other affected countries to safeguard its own benefits," he added.

Oil Prices Rise as Trump Prepares to Meet North Korea’s Kim - Oil prices were up Friday morning in Asia with news that North Korean leader Kim Jung Un would meet with U.S. President Donald Trump.South Korea’s national security chief briefed White House officials on talks between Seoul and Pyongyang on Thursday, and said that Kim has pledged to refrain from further nuclear or missile tests. Kim and Trump would likely meet by May at a place and time to be determined. The White House said Trump would accept the invitation. Asian stock markets rose following the news, pulling crude oil futures along with them. Beyond geopolitics, oil markets were mainly affected by soaring output from the U.S., which has risen by 23 percent since mid-2016 to 10.37 million barrels per day (bpd). U.S. oil production has already surpassed that of top exporter Saudi Arabia, and is expected to surpass that of top producer Russia by 2019. This would pose a significant challenge for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has been trying to prop up oil prices by cutting output.

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Oil Prices Rebound With Decline in Gasoline Inventories - 8 Mar 2018

Gold prices slipped as upbeat data on U.S. private-sector jobs helped the U.S. dollar reverse losses fueled by news that Gary Cohn, will leave his post - Gold on MCX settled down -0.32% at 30474 as the dollar steadied on upbeat economic news and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Also upbeat data on U.S. private-sector jobs helped the U.S. dollar reverse losses fueled by news that Gary Cohn, the top economic adviser to President Donald Trump, will leave his post. Gold prices fell even further after the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which offers a snapshot of domestic economic activity. Among the report's findings was "modest to moderate" growth across the country. Meanwhile the White House said that President Donald Trump may exempt Canada, Mexico from tariffs, easing days of investor fears over the prospect of a global trade war. "We expect that the President will sign something by the end of the week. And there are potential carve-outs for Mexico and Canada based on national security and possibly other countries as well based on that process," said Press Sec. 

Copper prices dropped as the market looked ahead to key data from top consumer China - Copper on MCX settled down -0.62% at 452.05 while prices recovered from the day’s low as support seen after weaker dollar and expectations of strong demand in China. Earlier in the day prices seen pressure as London Metal Exchange copper dropped on concerns that the U.S. could slap down import tariffs on steel, impacting zinc, used in galvanised steel and nickel, used in stainless steel, as well as aluminium have dragged those metals in the past week. While US President Donald Trump plans to offer Canada and Mexico a 30-day exemption from planned tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which could be extended based on progress in NAFTA talks, a White House official said on Wednesday night. A labor strike in February 2017 at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine, the world's largest, sharply reduced copper exports until a deal was struck with the union in March. State-run miner Codelco is the country's top copper producer.

Oil Prices Rebound With Decline in Gasoline Inventories - Oil prices rebounded slightly Thursday morning in Asia, pulled up by a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that gasoline inventories had dipped.Oil prices had dropped following a decline of more than 1 percent in S&P 500 Futures, triggered by the resignation of key free-trade advocate Gary Cohn, economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, on Tuesday. The EIA report came out a day after the 1-percent drop in S&P futures. The authority reported that gasoline stockpiles had declined by 800,000 barrels in the reporting period, compared with a 2.5-million-barrel build in the previous week. Since the start of the year, there has been only one week featuring a drop in gasoline inventories, while the total build since then stood at 17.8 million barrels.

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Oil Prices Rise Ahead Of World’s Largest Energy Industry Conference- 5 Mar 2018

Gold Prices Gain As Dollar Continues To Fall After Trump’s Tariff Plan - Gold prices continued to gain momentum as U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding tariffs on imported steel and aluminum sparked a sell-off in equities and the dollar. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy on steel and aluminium caused concerns to global investors, as the administration stressed over the weekend that there would be no exclusion for any country. The dollar has been sliding since Trump announced the tariffs last Friday. The dollar opened in Asia morning at a low level despite its short-lived rally last week when new Federal Reserve head Powell confirmed the tightening policy. Gold prices were under pressure last week following Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments, but clawed back most of its weekly loss last Friday in reaction to a weaker dollar and lower equity prices. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar, as a fall in the dollar makes gold 

cheaper for holders of foreign currency and thus, increases demand for the precious metal.

Copper settled flat with the relatively stronger dollar and thin liquidity restricting the metals - Copper settled flat with the relatively stronger dollar and thin liquidity restricting the metals. The market largely shrugged off positive data from the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February, which beat expectations to reach its highest in six months. A day earlier China’s official factory activity reading raised concerns of a sharper than expected slowdown. The main union of Chile´s Los Pelambres copper mine will vote next week on a new contract its members have not yet received and which could lead to a strike if they refuse. China’s metal scrap imports in January slumped to 490,000 mt, down 25.1% year on year, according to Chinese customs data. This also marked the lowest monthly level since February 2016. Copper scrap imports stood at 200,000 mt last month, down 27.5% from January 2017. China has approved plans to build a rail link connecting the capital Beijing with the new economic zone of Xiongan in Hebei province, with total investment expected to reach 33.53 billion yuan ($5.3 billion), the country’s top planning body said.

Oil Prices Rise Ahead Of World’s Largest Energy Industry Conference - Oil prices rose Monday morning in Asia with expectations that oil producers would discuss further how to clear the global oil excess during a meeting between OPEC and U.S. shale companies.The largest energy industry conference, CERAWeek, begins on Monday. Oil ministers from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other global oil players will gather in Houston for the event. On the sidelines of the conference, a dinner is expected to be held on Monday between OPEC officials and U.S. shale firms. Soaring shale oil production in the U.S. has hampered OPEC’s attempt to ease the global oversupply and prop up prices. This month, the number of oil rigs drilling for new production in the U.S. rose to 800 for the first time since April 2015, pointing to more increases in output to come. 

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