CAPITALSTARS MCX COMMODITY CRUDE OIL NEWS UPDATE : 09 August 2019

Capitalstars Investment Advisor

Energy Preview: Crude Jumps 1% On MCX 
Crude oil futures eased a little in Asia amid demand concerns after a sharp recovery yesterday and currently trade at 52.42 per barrel, down 0.20% on the day. MCX Crude ended up 1.43% at Rs 3693 per barrel in last session. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in a latest monthly update that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged 64 per barrel (b) in July, almost unchanged from the average in June 2019 but 10/b lower than the price in July of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average 64/b in the second half of 2019 and 65/b in 2020. The forecast of stable crude oil prices is the result of EIA's expectations of a relatively balanced global oil market. EIA forecasts global oil inventories will increase by 0.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
The EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average 5.50/b less than Brent prices during the fourth quarter of 2019 and in 2020, narrowing from the 6.60/b spread during July. The narrowing spread reflects EIA's assumption that crude oil pipeline transportation constraints from the Permian Basin to refineries and export terminals on the US Gulf Coast will ease in the coming months. In the July STEO, EIA forecast the Brent-WTI spread to average 4.00/b in 2020. The updated differential forecast reflects EIA's revised assumptions about the marginal cost of moving crude oil via pipeline from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast.


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