WEEKLY AGRI REPORT-27 Oct To 1 Nov 2014

Commodity Tips
Chana futures traded on a positive note on festive demand and declining arrival pressure in the physical markets. Slow start to the rabi pulses sowing also lent support to the prices. However, ample supplies of chana, imports of yellow peas and arrival pressure of kharif pulses capped sharp gains. Prices have declined over the last few months on sluggish demand in the physical markets coupled with record chana output in 2013-14. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of rabi pulses as on 24th October stands at 3.31 lakh ha as against 3.78 lakh ha last year. Sowing of kharif pulses stood at 10.23 mn ha as against 10.91 mn ha last year. Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 27 October 2014 was 44,439 MT.According to Statistics Canada October estimate, Canadian Dry Edible beans Agriculture Canada's market analysis forecasts that the edible bean production this year will total 292,000 MT from 136,000 hectares. Agriculture Canada's market analysis forecast Dry Pea production this year will total 3.52 million MT from 1.49 million hectares. Agriculture Canada's market analysis forecast Lentil production this year will total 1.75 million MT from 1.16 million hectares. Agriculture Canada's market analysis forecast Chickpea production this year will total
141,000 MT from 71,000 hectares.

Jeera futures higher on forecast of lower acreage and prospects of rise in demand from the overseas markets. Export orders are likely to divert to India due to supply crunch from the two major exporting countries, Syria and Turkey. Meanwhile, reports of sufficient stocks in the domestic market may keep the prices under check. Unjha market in Gujarat is closed from Oct 21 for Diwali and will re-open only on Oct 29. Sowing in Gujarat is expected to accelerate by mid-November. According to the government's third advance estimate, India’s jeera output was pegged at 456000 tonnes in 2013-14 (Oct-Sep) as against 394000 tonnes last year.

Indian soybean futures rose as lower-than-expected supplies from the new season crop due to delayed sowing lifted prices. Prices gained support on increase in demand for soybean meal from the livestock feed industry. The USDA Crop progress report released last evening showed 70% of the overall soybean area is harvested, up 17% from previous week. However the same is 6 percent points behind five years average. Yesterday, USDA reported export sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 110,500 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2014-15 marketing year. The weather outlook remains favorable for the crop harvest with drier conditions reported in most of the areas. According to the first Advance Estimates for 2014-15 released by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, soybean production may fall to 11.82 million tons marginally lower than the last year levels due to erratic rainfall over key producing regions. According to Oil World, U.S. soybean crushing may rise to a record 49.3 million tons in 2014-15, while processing in Brazil was estimated at 40 million tons. According to SEA data, soy oil imports on August increased by 174% to 350,373 MT from previous year at the same period. Soy oil prices might remain subdued owing to rapid progress in domestic soybean harvest and glut of supplies in the market.

Turmeric futures are expected to trade lower on reports of huge carryover stocks in the domestic markets. As per market source, demand in the spot market has declined due to arrival of poor quality turmeric. Added, total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be 35-37 lakh bags (1 bag=75 kg) against 52 lakh bags last year. Traders mentioned that the crop in Nizamabad and Warangal is likely to decline to 17- 18 lakh bags from 22 lakh bags projected last year. While the total crop size in Karnataka is estimated lower at 5 lakh bags from 7 lakhs bags in 2013-14.

Coriander futures are likely to trade with a negative bias due to sluggish demand along with forecast of substantial increase in acreage. However, coriander prices in the spot market rose on improved demand as markets resumed operations after a one week holiday. Spot markets in Rajasthan were closed on account of Diwali. The government's third advance estimate pegged all India coriander output at 428000 tonnes in 2013-14 (Oct-Sep) as against 524000 tonnes last year. Exports of coriander during April-July 2014 have increased 40 percent to 16000 tonnes from 11412 tonnes a year ago, according to the data by the Spices Board of India. However, as per market source, higher prices and robust exports are likely to increase the acreage in the rabi season.

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